Nigeria is sitting on over 3.5 billion barrels of oil and condensate reserves in undeveloped fields, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). At an average of $65 per barrel, these reserves are valued at approximately $227.5bn — equivalent to a staggering ₦341.25 trillion at the current exchange rate of ₦1,500 to a dollar.
This figure represents over 600% of the 2025 national budget, which stands at ₦54.9 trillion. To put the scale into perspective, this amount could:
- Build over two million primary health centres at ₦150 million each.
- Construct five million classroom blocks at ₦65 million per block.
- Deliver over 413,000 km of roads at ₦825 million per kilometre.
Yet, these reserves remain untapped.
Impact of Untapped Oil on Nigeria’s Economy
Nigeria’s 2025 budget deficit is projected at over ₦13 trillion, with ₦13.64 trillion allocated for recurrent expenditure, ₦23.96 trillion for capital projects, and ₦14.32 trillion for debt servicing. To cover the shortfall, the Federal Government plans to rely on domestic and external borrowing.
According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt rose to ₦149.39 trillion in Q1 2025, up by ₦27.72 trillion (22.8%) from the same period in 2024 (DMO Report). The persistent rise in debt is largely due to:
- New government borrowings.
- Naira depreciation, which inflates the value of foreign loans in local terms.
- The fact that a portion of undeveloped oil reserves has been tied to external loan agreements.
Oil Dependency and Missed Opportunities
As Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria continues to face a paradox
- Billions of barrels of oil remain undeveloped.
- The country still imports refined petroleum, with local refineries plagued by shortages and inefficiencies.
This dependence worsens fiscal vulnerability, especially when global oil prices fluctuate. Unlocking the value of these undeveloped oil reserves in Nigeria could significantly reduce borrowing needs and strengthen infrastructure development.
Nigeria’s undeveloped oil reserves present both a challenge and an opportunity. While the nation continues to accumulate debt, estimated at over ₦149 trillion, unlocking these reserves could transform fiscal realities, reduce borrowing, and accelerate infrastructure growth.
The big question remains: when will Nigeria turn its untapped wealth into real progress?
