Nigeria spent ₦51 billion ($34.4 million) on rice imports in 2024, according to UN Comtrade data, raising concerns that the gains recorded under the previous administration are being eroded. Despite earlier progress in boosting local productivity and expanding milling capacity, the country’s rice remains uncompetitive against cheaper imports due to persistently high production costs.
From Gains to Struggles
Under the Buhari administration, Nigeria’s rice industry saw notable improvements in productivity per hectare and investments in milling infrastructure. These gains were celebrated as steps toward food security and reduced dependence on imports. Yet, the momentum has slowed. Farmers now face rising input costs, limited demand, and shrinking profitability.
Muhammed Augie, former Kebbi State chairman of the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN), explained that many farmers are abandoning rice cultivation altogether. “Last year, less than 30 percent of rice fields in Kebbi were cultivated,” he said, noting that millers who once bought paddy have shut down operations.
Farmers in Limbo
The situation is dire for farmers like Ibrahim Salah in Jigawa State. He told BusinessDay that cultivating rice is no longer profitable due to low demand and high input costs. “The demand for paddy is very low at the moment, and it is not profitable for us,” he said.
This shift has forced many farmers to switch to other grains, such as sorghum, which are less costly to produce and face fewer market distortions.
Regional Imports and Smuggling
Nigeria’s import bill is compounded by regional dynamics. Benin and Togo spent $705.7 million and $74.4 million, respectively, on rice imports in 2024. Much of this rice is believed to be smuggled into Nigeria through porous borders, undermining local production and flooding the market with cheaper alternatives.
Estimates suggest Nigeria requires 6 million metric tons of milled rice annually to meet demand. However, local production falls short. The Rice Processors Association of Nigeria (RIPAN) estimates that the country needs 11 million metric tons of paddy but produces only 4.8 million metric tons, leaving a shortfall of 6.2 million metric tons.
Milling Industry Under Pressure
Nigeria’s rice milling industry has a processing capacity of 7.5 million metric tons, according to RIFAN. Yet much of this capacity remains idle. Over 90 mills have shut down operations, squeezed by high costs and competition from imports.
Peter Dama, national chairman of the Rice Millers Association of Nigeria (RIMAN), explained that millers cannot compete with cheaper imports. “Rice millers cannot ramp up production and compete with cheaper imports with the high cost of paddy, energy costs, and interest rates,” he said. More than 50 small-scale millers shut down last year alone.
Policy Dilemma
The federal government’s decision to grant import waivers for essential goods, including rice, in June 2024 was intended to ease food prices for consumers. While the policy has provided short-term relief, it has squeezed farmers and millers, eroding margins and threatening the viability of the local industry.
Critics argue that the duty-free import policy risks collapsing domestic production. Dama faulted the government’s approach, warning that it undermines years of investment in local capacity.
The Economics of Rice Production
Nigeria’s rice industry faces structural challenges:
- High input costs: Fertilizers, seeds, and irrigation remain expensive.
- Energy costs: Milling requires reliable power, but high energy tariffs raise overheads.
- Financing constraints: Interest rates make borrowing costly for farmers and millers.
- Market distortions: Smuggled rice undercuts local prices, discouraging investment.
These factors combine to make local rice less competitive, even as demand remains strong.
Implications for Food Security
President Bola Tinubu’s plan to boost food production and achieve food security is threatened by these trends. Heavy reliance on imports exposes Nigeria to global price volatility and foreign exchange pressures. It also undermines efforts to diversify the economy away from oil.
Food security is not just about availability but also affordability and sustainability. If local farmers abandon rice cultivation, Nigeria risks deepening its dependence on imports, weakening rural livelihoods, and losing opportunities for job creation.
Farmers’ Voices
Augie’s account of abandoned fields in Kebbi and Salah’s struggles in Jigawa highlight the human dimension of the crisis. Farmers who once contributed to Nigeria’s rice revolution now face uncertainty. Many are switching to alternative crops, but this transition is not without challenges. Sorghum and other grains may provide short-term relief, yet they do not replace rice’s central role in Nigerian diets.
Regional Comparisons
Nigeria’s struggle contrasts with its regional neighbors. Benin and Togo’s import volumes, much of which leaks into Nigeria, highlight the porous nature of West African trade. While Nigeria has invested heavily in local production, its inability to compete on price leaves it vulnerable to external supply chains.
The Way Forward
Experts argue that Nigeria must balance consumer needs with producer sustainability. Key recommendations include:
- Subsidizing inputs: Lowering the cost of fertilizers and seeds to make cultivation viable.
- Energy reforms: Reducing tariffs and improving power supply for millers.
- Border control: Tackling smuggling to protect local producers.
- Financing support: Providing affordable credit to farmers and millers.
- Policy consistency: Avoiding abrupt shifts that destabilize the industry.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s rice industry stands at a crossroads. The surge in imports, rising costs, and policy missteps have eroded gains made in previous years. Farmers are abandoning fields, millers are shutting down, and the country is spending billions on foreign rice.
For President Tinubu’s food security agenda to succeed, Nigeria must confront these challenges head-on. Real solutions lie in disciplined policy, targeted support for farmers and millers, and stronger border enforcement. Without these measures, Nigeria risks losing its hard-won progress and deepening its dependence on imports.
The story of Nigeria’s rice industry is not just about numbers; it is about livelihoods, resilience, and the future of food security in Africa’s most populous nation.
